it’s that time again: the DUP pulled the assembly down and we go voting on may 5th. on the suggestion of some friends, i’m publishing my predictions constituency-by-constituency (before april ends because i like to live on the edge).

Overall Predictions:

Sinn Féin are on track to take the largest number of seats. I can’t see the DUP do anything but lose seats, though their low polling might be tempered somewhat by rallying their base against the prospect of a Sinn Féin first minister (plus c’est change). Alliance are on a steady upwards track and likely to make some gains, mostly outside of Belfast, solidifying them as the third-largest party. The UUP could benefit from a weak DUP, but a massive breakthrough isn’t on the cards. The SDLP would do well to keep their 2017 result, while the Greens and PBP are most likely staying steady (though gains aren’t impossible). The media are talking up the TUV a lot, but I don’t see it translating to seats. In terms of Community Representation, I see a growth in the ‘Other’ (non-Unionist or Nationalist) representation, which I hope would bode well for institutional reform.

I’ll be amazed if I’m spot on, but I hope I’ve described where I’m unsure.

Sinn Féin – 28 (+1 from 2017) [minimum: 25, maximum: 29]

DUP – 24 (-4 from 2017) [minimum: 21, maximum: 26]

Alliance – 13 (+3 from 2017) [minimum: 10, maximum: 14]

SDLP – 10 (-2 from 2017) [minimum: 9, maximum: 13]

UUP – 10 (no change from 2017) [minimum: 8, maximum: 14]

Green – 2 (no change from 2017) [minimum: 1, maximum: 3]

PBP – 1 (no change from 2017) [minimum: 1, maximum: 2]

TUV – 1 (no change from 2017) [minimum: 1, maximum: 2]

Independent – 1 (no change from 2017) [minimum: 0, maximum: 2]

 

Fermanagh and South Tyrone

3 SF, 1 UUP, 1 DUP (no change)

Sweet home Fermanagh! I’ve spent a lot of time at very tense counts for this corner of NI. I’m sure the UUP are jonesing for that second seat after losing Tom Elliot from Westminster, but on a coin toss I’d give it to Sinn Féin. On a good year the DUP would take it, but this was Arlene’s seat and she’s just retired, they’re in no position for a gain.

 

West Tyrone

3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP (no change)

Sweet h-Omagh-labama! 3 Sinn Féin and one SDLP seat solid here; the UUP have an interesting candidate but would be fortunate to unseat the DUP.

 

Foyle

2 SDLP, 2 SF, 1 DUP (no change)

Sweet Home Alabama, hit single by Lynrd Skinr(derry)! Sinn Féin and the SDLP have been back and forth for the top spot but I’m confident each will elect two MLAs for the city, with another DUP MLA mainly from the Waterside area. Eyes on People Before Profit here though and how well they do without Eamonn McCann as their candidate.

East Derry

2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 Independent (Claire Sugden) (no change)

Claire Sugden has proven she can get elected here and I doubt that’ll change. The DUP should have two solid seats, and I’m pretty sure Sinn Féin have a hold on one. The other is most likely the SDLP, though Alliance will give them a good chase for it going by 2019’s Westminster result.

Mid Ulster

3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP (no change)

I simply cannot see any change in results for the Sinn Féin leader’s seat here, but it’ll be interesting to the nerds to see the voteshare in smaller parties.

Newry & Armagh

3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP (no change)

The UUP would want to chase either the DUP or final Sinn Féin seat, but without a concerted ground campaign, I don’t see it.

Upper Bann

2 SF, 1 DUP, 2 UUP (SF gain from SDLP, UUP gain from DUP)

This collection of towns near the centre of the province makes one of the most uncertain guesses of the election for me. One each of the Sinn Féin, DUP and UUP seats are safe, while the others are up for grabs. At the very least, the DUP and SDLP should be sweating. It’s possible that Upper Bann could become the second constituency with MLAs from 5 different parties, after South Belfast.

South Down

2 SF, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance (Alliance gain from SDLP)

Pretty confident that Alliance will make a gain here. The UUP probably want it too, what with Jim Wells retiring, but in what’s becoming a theme, I can’t see it.

Strangford

2 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 UUP (Alliance gain from DUP)

I’ve seen folks say this is a potential SDLP gain, but honestly, nah. I reckon Alliance will pick up a second from a weakened DUP. The second UUP candidate will probably be too far behind to threaten.

North Down

2 Alliance, 1 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Green (Alliance gain from DUP)

Alliance have good reason to be hopeful here after gaining a seat at Westminster; the DUP are under threat from both them and their former MLA Alex Easton, who I’m guessing won’t get elected, but in North Down, anything’s possible (pretty sure they put that on the welcome signs for the borough).

Belfast East

2 Alliance, 2 DUP, 1 UUP (no change)

This is traditionally Alliance’s strongest seat, so they should easily see Naomi Long and her running mate elected. Both DUP seats probably alright too, and they’re smartly not running a third. The UUP meanwhile are apparently dead set on declining in the capital, risking their only MLA in the city by running two candidates; the Greens are threatening them here, and poor vote balancing, along with how Alliance surplus falls, could see Brian Smyth elected on the back of a massive campaign. I’ve erred on the side of a UUP win here, but a Green gain wouldn’t shock me.

South Belfast

1 Alliance, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 Green (no change)

Short-lived DUP leader Poots has been airdropped in from Lisburn as their singular candidate here; he’ll get elected, but expect a reduced vote. Alliance and the SDLP both want a second seat, but it’s not there with Green leader Clare Bailey in the race.

Lagan Valley

2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 SDLP (no change)

As much as I want the DUP to implode in their leader’s constituency, I can’t see it happening. A UUP attempt to gain off the SDLP is possible, but they latter should be able to just squeak in if they can stay ahead of both them and Alliance’s second candidate.

Belfast West

4 SF, 1 PBP (no change)

People Before Profit have a very solid seat, and I think Sinn Féin’s electoral machine is well-oiled enough to get four MLAs in the west. The SDLP might do fine, but not fine enough for a gain.

Belfast North

2 SF, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance (Alliance gain from DUP)

Things are hotting up in my home constituency! Both DUP MLAs are retiring, leaving the field open for the current lord mayor of Belfast, Alliance’s Nuala McAllister. On a bad day Sinn Féin would be under threat, but May 5th probably isn’t that day. Deputy leaders of both the SDLP and Greens are standing here, along with PBP’s only councillor from outside Derry or West Belfast. The SDLP should be concerned about a loss here, but I’ve got them edging it out.

South Antrim

2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP (no change)

Alliance running two probably won’t overturn a new seat for them, though it might help the UUP on their way to a second here, where they’ve had an MP briefly in the last decade. The SDLP have been close to a seat here before, but I’m guessing it’ll be no change.

East Antrim

2 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 UUP (Alliance gain from UUP)

Alliance foregrounded their second candidate, Danny Donnelly, in the last Westminster election, and they have the numbers to elect him. I have them gaining from the UUP on the strength of the hard-right vote here (TUV votes will probably edge to the DUP), but it’s not certain.

North Antrim

2 DUP, 1 TUV, 1 UUP, 1 SF (no change)

Finally, the TUV leader’s seat and their best hope of a gain; I don’t think they’ll get it, as they’re standing a new second candidate elected in Jim Allister’s locked-in Ballymena base. If they do gain, it’d be from the DUP and on the back of far too much coverage of Allister’s bullshit by the media (thanks BBC). I think on the day there’ll be no change, but the Alliance vote will increase.

 

And that’s it! In a few weeks I’ll check back and see how I did!