well ain’t that some shit.

sometimes you don’t know what narratives catch on until you see their effect in an election. this year, i think these feelings generally influenced votes:

• the election is a race for the first minister post, and if you care about nationalism v unionism, you should vote Sinn Féin or DUP
• if you don’t care about that, you should vote for a surging Alliance Party
• if you hardcore care about the NI Protocol you’ll vote TUV

honestly, i would have expected the cost of living to affect people’s votes more, but that didn’t shake out. overall results ended up at:

• Sinn Féin – 27 (no change from 2017) [-1 from my prediction]
• DUP – 25 (-3 from 2017) [+1 from my prediction]
• Alliance – 17 (+9 from 2017) [+6 from my prediction]
• SDLP – 8 (-4 from 2017) [-2 from my prediction]
• UUP – 9 (-1 from 2017) [-1 from my prediction]
• Green – 0 (-2 from 2017) [-2 from my prediction]
• PBP – 1 (no change from 2017) [as predicted]
• TUV – 1 (no change from 2017) [as predicted]
• Independent – 1 (+1 from 2017) [+1 from my prediction]

 

as a green party supporter, this was a disappointing election for sure. alliance, in a circular relationship with good polling results and effective media coverage, ate into the “centre ground” for whom the constitutional question is not pressing, resulting in big losses for the SDLP (including their deputy leader, who i expected to retain a seat in north belfast), and the UUP scraping by with a single loss.

 

gender results

from what i can tell, this election there were 33 women elected to the assembly, and 57 men: 63% male.

by party, that breaks down, as women by total number of party MLAs:

• Sinn Féin: 16 of 27: 59%
• Ind: 1 of 2: 50%
• Alliance: 8 of 17: 47%
• SDLP: 2 of 8: 25%
• DUP: 6 of 25: 24%
• UUP: 0 of 9: 0%
• PBP: 0 of 1: 0%
• TUV: 0 of 1: 0%

no MLA, or even candidate as far as i’m aware, was out as non-binary.

i did briefly see danny kennedy and doug beattie failing to defend having stood a former party leader against their only woman MLA; a decision which resulted in her losing a seat. this exemplifies that not only do you need to put women up for election as a political party; you also need to put them in winnable positions.

 

proportional results

STV, the system by which MLAs, councillors and TDs are elected across ireland, is a bit odd. it’s not as disproportional a system as first-past-the-post, but by being constituency-based, still benefits larger parties, who can soak up transfers, rather than smaller parties with a broad base of support (though parties with a very concentrated support can succeed). this election demonstrated this, with:

• the TUV receiving 7.6% of the vote, and 1.1% of MLAs, as their support was fairly widespread but below 10% in most places
• the DUP receiving 21.3% of the vote, and 27.7% of MLAs, as they soaked up transfers from the TUV
• the Green Party and Aontú receiving 1.9% and 1.5% of the vote, and no MLAs for either party, as they were below the voteshare in any one constituency to elect a representative.

now, i don’t want more TUV or Aontú MLAs, i think both parties want to actively undo any positive change of the last 50 years, but even for me – someone who thinks even the best electoral systems are fundamentally rigged under capitalism – this result skews against smaller parties.

 

what now?

with the DUP not nominating to the executive, it’s uncertain if we’re back to direct rule from westminster for a few years, or if we’ll see another snap election. either way, seeing the effective reduction of elected eco-socialist voices, i’ve rejoined the Green Party. i suggest you do too.